Dick
Tue Feb 22 21:16:00 CST 2005
They say it all over M05 with apparent sincerity.
I think that they truly wish all existing users preferred the dumbed-down
stuff because that's where they are heading, our wishes be damned, and it
would make the transition easier if we really did prefer it that way. I also
suspect that there may be some component of what you say: if they repeat it
enough, we might actually begin to believe it. What's the truth? That lie
which is repeated most often?
To the extent that they have some factual basis for saying it, yes, I
believe what Bob Peel wrote is true.
I think they'd dearly love for every person in the world who already has a
computer, and everybody who doesn't yet have one but could get one, to latch
onto the MSN advertising stream. Then they could charge more for the ads.
Then they'd have this great revenue stream that they wouldn't have to do
much to nurture but keep selling the ads. That's a whole lot easier,
cheaper, less risky, and more sure than actually developing software. Do I
blame them for this? Heck no. We'd all love to attach ourselves to a "free
money" iv drip. Some of us, read: Microsoft, are just in a better position
to do it than others: read: you and me. I also don't entirely blame them
because I think their existing business model is probably unsustainable.
Selling consumer software for barely the cost of the product you ship and
then offering free support (no matter how good the product) is just a recipe
to hemorrhage money, even if you can figure out how to get the regulars to
buy that new CD every darned year.
I suspect they do a lot of research to this end. I bet they have research
that says "managing my money" is a top five reason cited by a huge
proportion of people who don't yet have one but could get one as to what
might drive them to do it. I'll bet it polls even higher among people who
already have a computer but can't really figure out what to do with it as to
what they'd like to be able to do with it. I'll bet they also know that **if
they could entice these people to actually do this rather than just say they
would** how much time they could get access to these people's eyeballs for.
They've certainly tumbled to how much more they could sell the ads for if
they could target them based on knowing all there was to know about the
viewer's financial and life situation--as the person who has access to our
Money data surely would be able to do. (An interesting side question is why
the people who say they'd like to use a computer to manage their money say
it. There is research out there on some subjects that people say these
things because they think it's what "smart people" (or popular or whatever)
should say, and they want to seem smart, so they say it. It has nothing to
do with their real gut reaction. Things like asking people if they intend to
vote: the numbers way outstrip the behavior.)
So, this surely looks like the Pot Of Gold At The End Of The Rainbow to
them.
But they haven't been able to tap it. Those of us who actually do use our
computers to manage our money haven't exactly been playing along and looking
at all the ads. Surely they know how many hits to the MSN properties linked
to from Money there are per unit time as a function of the number of copies
of Money in use. I'll bet the number is a whole lot lower than they keep
hoping to make it. Worse, they aren't growing the user base. They surely
know how many people get OEM Money licenses on new PCs, start it two or
three times, never have the "light bulb moment" or find it actually requires
typing (arrggh) or is not effortless, and never start it again.
So they go to figure out what's holding all these people back who say they'd
like to use a computer to manage their money but don't. They invite
grandmothers and teenagers and computer-phobes into their lab, show them
Money, and ask what they like. Simple (or Essential, if you prefer) will win
this race EVERY TIME. So, they conclude that SIMPLE is the only ticket left.
It's like asking people who actually have no intent of working on their car
what looks like the best tool in the toolbox to work on the car. They tell
you the hammer because it looks, well, SIMPLE. So you conclude, if you want
to sell more toolboxes to people who say they'd like to work on their cars,
you'd best show them the hammer. Whether a hammer is actually useful for
much serious car repair gets lost in the shuffle.
I can't claim all of this as original thought. See
http://blogs.msdn.com/philipsu/archive/2004/07/01/170682.aspx for some
insight.
"Vadim Rapp" <vrapp@nospam.polyscience.com> wrote in message
news:%23NbXICSGFHA.228@TK2MSFTNGP15.phx.gbl...
> DW> Most Users Prefer(tm) the dumbed-down "Essential *" ones.
>
> Unless it's a sarcasm, I very much doubt that Microsoft has a 1% clue
> about what 1% of users want. I don't recall a single survey on this, do
> you? I'm sure though they know a lot about what MSN wants the users to
> want. And any wishful thinking, given the absence of real knowledge, and
> empowered by incompetence, soon becomes the belief and then confidence
> that it's objective. Money/Microsoft is not an exception: in today's
> world, you can see examples of it literally on every step - beliefs with
> no correlation to the reality or to the logic - just look around.